Michael Lown
BartoBig Ass Aliens vs. Hayao Miyazaki: Box Office Predictions for 8/14/'09
August 11th 2009 17:07
Last week, the box office was spruced up a bit thanks to the blockbuster G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra, making 100 million worldwide, which is more than enough for Paramount to all ready confirm that a sequel is in development. There's little doubt that this flick will continue to reign supreme at the top of the box office, however several films coming out this week are battling for second place.
Disctrict 9
This low budget thriller about an alien invansion from Neill Blomkamp (most will know him as the guy who nearly helmed the Halo adaption before it was thrust into development hell), has picked up quite a lot of buzz over the past few weeks. A mixture of strong advertisements and screenings at conventions like Comic-Con a few weeks back has certainly given it some mainstream attention. Also helping is the array of great reviews coming out from critics.
With a first-time director and no-name cast, easily the biggest marketing draw from the studios is producer Peter Jackson. Jackson first started out as wannabe-director from New Zealand who slowly garnered a cult following thanks to low-budget gore films like Bad Taste, Meet the Feebles, and Deal Alive. He started getting mainstream and critical attention with the drame starring a pre-Titanic Kate Winslet in Heavenly Creatures, which got him his first Oscar Nomination for his adapted screenplay. The success of that film made him able to create his adaption on the Lord of the Rings trilogy. We all know what happened next: the movie wound up making a shitload of money and winning a shitload of awards, easily launching Jackson into director superstardom. In 2005, he remade the classic King Kong. While the film was still a big success, Jackson got some harsh backlash from the film community, most considering the three-hour flick self-indulgent.
Lately it seems that Jackson is trying to work in the genre that made him popular. His latest directorial effort, The Lovely Bones which opens in December, calls back to emotional drama he made with Heavenly Creatures, and Jackson's involvement with District 9 calls to his cult classics of the early '90s.
There's a strong sense that this movie will become the sleeper hit of the year 2009. With a strong word of mouth, I wouldn't be surprised if the opening weekend could be around $25,000,000, and continue to go steady for the weeks to come.
Ponyo
You know, Hayao Miyazaki doesn't get much love here in America. I know a majority of the western hemisphere considers him to be among the greatest directors that ever lived and has earn 2 Oscar Nominations (including a win with his 2001 masterpiece Spirired Away). But in terms of box office, he usually goes unnotices. His last feature, Howl's Moving Castle, which made 200 million over in Japan, but barely made 4 million over here. This probably has more to do with its distributor Disney than with the film itself. Despite Miyazaki's praise, Disney has never been big on releasing his work. Sure the make strong english dubs with a big name cast (including people like Patrick Stewart, Uma Thurman, Michael Keaton, and Christain Bale), but it took them years to release his films on DVD (their dub for Castle in the Sky with James Van Der Beek and Anna Paquin sat on the shelf for years before its release).
Their release of Ponyo (its original title Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea) will probably not suffer the same fate. Unlike before, Disney shows some genuine effort this time around. First, the opening this thing around the country instead of a punny limited release. Next, along with John Lasseter (who helmed all the enlish versions of Miyazaki's films, is joined by super-producers Frank Marshall and Katheleen Kennedy. Finally, they've added a strong-named cast, including Matt Damon, Tina Fey, Cate Blanchett, Cloris Leachman, Liam Neeson, and Betty White.
Unfortunately, while most movie buffs will run to see it (except those who feel awkward for sitting in a theater for a G-rated film surrounded by kids), mainstream audiences will most likely stay away. Marketing for the film has been fairly slim and most of the trailers and tv spots I've seen for the film make it seem like some bland kiddie flick that's better off direct-to-dvd. I hope the best for this movie, but it seems like it'll probably end up with a modest take of around 12,500,000 opening weekend.
The Time Traveller's Wife
Chick flick time! This time around we have the adaption of the New York Times Bestseller (which I've never heard of). The plot is your average romantic summer flick with an added gimmick, the boyfriend apparently has the ability to travel through time. Cute, eh?
The film stars Rachel McAdams (who with this and Sherlock Holmes seems to be rebounding from the flop State of Play) and Eric Bana (along with Star Trek and Funny People is having a pretty busy Summer). While the movie probably won't be as sucessful as Julie & Julia, it should still take in a decent $15,000,000.
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard
With a truckload of Emmy and Golden Globes under his belt with his hit tv show Entourage, it was only a matter of time before Jeremy Piven helmed his own feature-length movie. The film, produced by Will Ferrell and Adam McKay and directed by Neal Brennan, who most would know as the co-creator of the infamous Chappelle Show over at Comedy Central, seems like the perfect type of summer comedy that's dump near the end of August by the studio.
There has been little marketing for the film, making it impossible to be much of a success, but a strong cast (also including The Hangover's Ed Helms and Mr. Barbra Streisand, James Brolin) should attract enough viewers to give this around a $10,000,000 opening.
Next Week: The Jew Hunter vs. The Wishing Rock
See ya,
Supreme Film Geek
Disctrict 9
With a first-time director and no-name cast, easily the biggest marketing draw from the studios is producer Peter Jackson. Jackson first started out as wannabe-director from New Zealand who slowly garnered a cult following thanks to low-budget gore films like Bad Taste, Meet the Feebles, and Deal Alive. He started getting mainstream and critical attention with the drame starring a pre-Titanic Kate Winslet in Heavenly Creatures, which got him his first Oscar Nomination for his adapted screenplay. The success of that film made him able to create his adaption on the Lord of the Rings trilogy. We all know what happened next: the movie wound up making a shitload of money and winning a shitload of awards, easily launching Jackson into director superstardom. In 2005, he remade the classic King Kong. While the film was still a big success, Jackson got some harsh backlash from the film community, most considering the three-hour flick self-indulgent.
Lately it seems that Jackson is trying to work in the genre that made him popular. His latest directorial effort, The Lovely Bones which opens in December, calls back to emotional drama he made with Heavenly Creatures, and Jackson's involvement with District 9 calls to his cult classics of the early '90s.
There's a strong sense that this movie will become the sleeper hit of the year 2009. With a strong word of mouth, I wouldn't be surprised if the opening weekend could be around $25,000,000, and continue to go steady for the weeks to come.
Ponyo
You know, Hayao Miyazaki doesn't get much love here in America. I know a majority of the western hemisphere considers him to be among the greatest directors that ever lived and has earn 2 Oscar Nominations (including a win with his 2001 masterpiece Spirired Away). But in terms of box office, he usually goes unnotices. His last feature, Howl's Moving Castle, which made 200 million over in Japan, but barely made 4 million over here. This probably has more to do with its distributor Disney than with the film itself. Despite Miyazaki's praise, Disney has never been big on releasing his work. Sure the make strong english dubs with a big name cast (including people like Patrick Stewart, Uma Thurman, Michael Keaton, and Christain Bale), but it took them years to release his films on DVD (their dub for Castle in the Sky with James Van Der Beek and Anna Paquin sat on the shelf for years before its release).
Their release of Ponyo (its original title Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea) will probably not suffer the same fate. Unlike before, Disney shows some genuine effort this time around. First, the opening this thing around the country instead of a punny limited release. Next, along with John Lasseter (who helmed all the enlish versions of Miyazaki's films, is joined by super-producers Frank Marshall and Katheleen Kennedy. Finally, they've added a strong-named cast, including Matt Damon, Tina Fey, Cate Blanchett, Cloris Leachman, Liam Neeson, and Betty White.
Unfortunately, while most movie buffs will run to see it (except those who feel awkward for sitting in a theater for a G-rated film surrounded by kids), mainstream audiences will most likely stay away. Marketing for the film has been fairly slim and most of the trailers and tv spots I've seen for the film make it seem like some bland kiddie flick that's better off direct-to-dvd. I hope the best for this movie, but it seems like it'll probably end up with a modest take of around 12,500,000 opening weekend.
The Time Traveller's Wife
Chick flick time! This time around we have the adaption of the New York Times Bestseller (which I've never heard of). The plot is your average romantic summer flick with an added gimmick, the boyfriend apparently has the ability to travel through time. Cute, eh?
The film stars Rachel McAdams (who with this and Sherlock Holmes seems to be rebounding from the flop State of Play) and Eric Bana (along with Star Trek and Funny People is having a pretty busy Summer). While the movie probably won't be as sucessful as Julie & Julia, it should still take in a decent $15,000,000.
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard
With a truckload of Emmy and Golden Globes under his belt with his hit tv show Entourage, it was only a matter of time before Jeremy Piven helmed his own feature-length movie. The film, produced by Will Ferrell and Adam McKay and directed by Neal Brennan, who most would know as the co-creator of the infamous Chappelle Show over at Comedy Central, seems like the perfect type of summer comedy that's dump near the end of August by the studio.
There has been little marketing for the film, making it impossible to be much of a success, but a strong cast (also including The Hangover's Ed Helms and Mr. Barbra Streisand, James Brolin) should attract enough viewers to give this around a $10,000,000 opening.
Next Week: The Jew Hunter vs. The Wishing Rock
See ya,
Supreme Film Geek
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